Will cooler heads prevail at Michigan?

Autoracing Betting Lines

06/08/2010 - Brooklyn, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Series: NASCAR Sprint Cup. Date: Sunday, June 13. Race: Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400. Site: Michigan International Speedway. Track: two-mile oval. Start time: 1:00 p.m. (et). Laps: 200. Miles: 400. 2009 winner: Mark Martin. Television: TNT. Radio: Motor Racing Network (MRN)/SIRIUS NASCAR Radio.

After a wild finish in last Sunday's race at Pocono, don't be surprised if the madness carries over to Michigan this weekend.

Denny Hamlin held off Tony Stewart and Kyle Busch, who is Hamlin's Joe Gibbs Racing teammate, after two late-race restarts to claim his fourth Pocono win.

Pocono concluded in dramatic fashion, with Kevin Harvick bumping Joey Logano out of the way for a top-five position with less than two laps to go. Then a nine-car pileup occurred on the last lap of the green-white checkered finish when Kasey Kahne was shoved down the track and into the grass by his Richard Petty Motorsports teammate A.J. Allmendinger. Kahne slammed hard into the wall and spun around on the track before taking out Jeff Gordon, Mark Martin, Greg Biffle and several others.

While Hamlin celebrated his series-high fourth win of the season, Logano parked his car next to Harvick's ride on pit road, as the two engaged in a shouting match.

Indeed, it was a wild day at Pocono.

Now it's on to Michigan, where Hamlin hopes his winning momentum will continue. Prior to his first win of the season in March at Martinsville, Hamlin sat 19th in points. Since then, he has climbed up to third in the standings (-136).

"I feel like we're one of four or five guys that really are legitimate, week in, week out, up-front guys," Hamlin said. "That's a good feeling right now. But it's very tough to stay on top of any sport for an entire year. Our sport is a roller coaster. It goes up and down. It has waves. Your performance always comes in waves."

Hamlin has yet to win at Michigan, but he did record his best finish there one year ago with a third-place run.

Harvick enters Michigan with just a 19-point lead over Busch.

Mark Martin is the defending race winner at Michigan. Last year, Martin won in a thrilling battle of fuel mileage. His Hendrick Motorsports teammate Johnson held the lead before running out of gas just short of crossing the line to start the final lap. Biffle then inherited the top position, but he too ran out of fuel on the backstretch. That allowed Martin to take over the lead and then claim his fourth of five victories during the 2009 season.

"We won at the first Michigan race last year because our car was so fast that I could slow down and still stay ahead of people," Martin said. "Therefore, I was able to save enough gas to make it all the way."

Martin leads all full-time, active drivers with five victories at Michigan.

Currently 11th in points, Martin has been winless so far this season.

Last August, Brian Vickers prevailed in another fuel-mileage battle at Michigan. Vickers, the pole sitter, grabbed the lead with two laps to go when Johnson ran out of fuel. He then held off Gordon, who also gambled on fuel, by 1.4 seconds for his second career Cup victory. His first win came in October 2006 at Talladega.

Vickers is expected to be out of his Red Bull Racing Toyota for the remainder of the season, due to his treatment for blood clots. Casey Mears has been driving the car since last month at Dover.

Up until last year, Roush Fenway Racing had been dominant at Michigan, winning a Cup race there for seven consecutive years. Team owner Jack Roush, who resides 60 miles away from the two-mile track in Northville, MI, recorded his 11th victory there in August 2008 when Carl Edwards held off Kyle Busch in a two-lap overtime finish. Roush moved into a tie with the Wood Brothers for most car owner wins at the track.

"All of our wins at [Michigan] have been special," Roush said. "It's in front of a home crowd, it's in front of my Roush industries affiliates and it's in front of Ford Motor Company and Chrysler and General Motors. Detroit is still the Motor City in spite of rumors otherwise, but it's good to race in front of the home crowd where all of our friends and the people that we'd like to have support are there paying attention."

Ford will use its new engine package -- FR9 -- in all of the Roush and Petty cars, as well as the sole entry for the Wood Brothers, this weekend at Michigan.

The automobile manufacturer debuted its FR9 in last year's fall race at Talladega, where Jamie McMurray won in a Roush Ford. McMurray has since moved over to Earnhardt Ganassi Racing. Ford has not won a Sprint Cup points race since McMurray's victory at Talladega.

Forty-six teams are on the preliminary entry list for the Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400.

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Pacific-10 Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Stanford

Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.

Should be in:

Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.

Southeastern Conference odds
Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State

It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it.

Work left to do:

Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney.

Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson.

Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable.

Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile.

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Betting Football

NFL Football Betting Online

Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.